2026 social security cola increase With Social Security’s COLA on the line, the Trump administration plans to release inflation data delayed by the shutdown
2026 Social Security COLA IncreaseThe Social Security Administration (SSA) annually adjusts benefits through a Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) to help recipients keep pace with inflation. This adjustment is calculated based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter (July–September) of the previous year to the current year. For 2026, the COLA will apply to payments starting in January 2026.Current Status and Projections
- Announcement Delay: The official 2026 COLA was originally scheduled for announcement on October 15, 2025, but a partial U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of September 2025 CPI-W data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This pushes back the final figure, though independent estimates remain reliable based on July and August data.
- Projected Increase: As of early October 2025, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League (TSCL) forecasts a 2.7% COLA, up from the 2.5% increase that took effect in January 2025. Social Security policy analyst Mary Johnson estimates a slightly higher 2.8%. These projections exceed the 16-year average COLA of 2.3% (2010–2025) but are lower than the inflation-driven spikes of recent years (e.g., 8.7% in 2022).
- Influencing Factors: Recent projections factor in a modest “Trump bump” from new tariffs and trade policies, which are expected to add slight inflationary pressure. However, overall inflation has cooled since the pandemic highs.
Impact on BenefitsThe COLA applies uniformly as a percentage increase across all benefit types (retirement, disability, survivors, and SSI). Here’s how it breaks down for average recipients:
| Benefit Type | Average Monthly Benefit (2025) | Projected 2026 Increase (at 2.7%) | New Average Monthly Benefit (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired Worker | $2,008 | +$54 | $2,062 |
| Disabled Worker | $1,542 | +$42 | $1,584 |
| Widow(er) | $1,536 | +$41 | $1,577 |
- Example: If you receive $2,000 monthly in 2025 (close to the retired worker average), a 2.7% COLA would raise it to $2,054 (+$54/month). At 2.8%, it would be $2,056 (+$56/month).
- Net Impact Consideration: Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise about 12% in 2026 (to ~$206.50/month from $185 in 2025), which could offset some gains if deducted from your Social Security check. For the $2,000 example above, your net benefit after premiums might effectively increase by only ~$32/month.
State VariationsWhile the percentage increase is the same nationwide, dollar amounts vary based on average benefit levels, which are higher in states with elevated lifetime earnings and cost of living. The 10 states with the largest projected dollar COLA increases (at 2.7%) for retired workers are:
| State | Average 2025 Monthly Benefit | Projected 2026 Dollar Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | $2,108 | +$57 |
| New Jersey | $2,066 | +$56 |
| Massachusetts | $2,053 | +$55 |
| New Hampshire | $2,037 | +$55 |
| Rhode Island | $2,023 | +$55 |
| New York | $2,008 | +$54 |
| Maryland | $1,993 | +$54 |
| Colorado | $1,982 | +$54 |
| California | $1,978 | +$53 |
| Washington | $1,977 | +$53 |
Historical ContextFor perspective, here’s a quick look at recent COLAs:
| Year | COLA Increase |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 (Proj.) | 2.7–2.8% |
The 2026 projection ranks around the middle historically (29th highest since 1977). While a higher COLA signals rising costs (potentially outpacing retiree-specific expenses like healthcare), it provides some relief amid moderating inflation.For the most up-to-date official announcement, check ssa.gov once the shutdown resolves. If you have a specific benefit amount or state in mind, I can help estimate your personal increase